Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Oil rationing and riot in Iran

Several petrol stations have been torched in the Iranian capital Tehran, after the government announced the rationing of fuel for private vehicles.

It’s quite ironic that Iran with abundant oil can’t have free use of it. There are countries with no oil at all that manage to refine the crude oil they buy from countries like Iran.

Metaphorically, the Iranians look like sailors surrounded with a big ocean but with little fresh water. Too much crude oil underground but little refined oil above the ground. The Iranian regime seems to have got its energy priority wrong. While it should focus at building refinery stations, it focuses on developing its controversial and suspected nuclear program. This will just give an opportunity for the USA and its allies to reinforce sanctions on it as refined oil will be on the sanctions list. USA, in particular will have a wide margin for its stick-and-carrot policy towards Iran. For Iran to be able to have the technology to refine its crude oil, it must shut its nuclear plantation, the US would say.

The Iranian president can fuel his policy with fiery speeches against the USA, promising glory for the Iranians. But the Iranians want to be on the move and not at a standstill. They seem to be filled with rhetoric. Now they want just oil to fill their vehicles. The oil rationing can just trigger protests without limits as the economy seems to be going badly along with the ethic restrictions imposed on them Perhaps, too radical measures are an invitation to a widespread revolt against a government establishing itself as revolutionary.

When the regime is surrounded with further international sanctions and wide protests at home, it can be faced with a blaze of difficulties, started by the rationing of oil that, in the first place, should be as easily available as drinking water. How the regime can put off the blaze it started remains to see. The climate seems too hot now. The regime needs to find ways to cool it through its international and domestic approaches.

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