Friday, November 21, 2008

What, if the USA loses its world dominance?

US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on global trends.

The US domination has always been a source of resentment. Its end may be a cause of celebration for those who have predicted its downfall, but it can also be a source of worry for those who will have to cope with the new emerging powers like China and India. Many will find it difficult to adjust to their domination.
The rest of the West will try to keep the USA in a leading role as they all share the same political and cultural values.

China, once becoming a world power, will just export its repressive measures to the rest of the world. It can be a superpower in, say, 20 years. But it’s unlikely that it will become a democratic country with a federal system. In other words, it’s very improbable that it will change its name from the Popular Republic of China to The United States of China.

The USA, with its vast resources, still has the means to keep its leading role. But it has to keep its efforts to do so on many fronts. In the past it used to be just the Soviet Union. Now it’s the EU, Russia, India and China -currently the most prominent blocks it has to contend with.

However, it doesn’t matter if the US domination is on the wane. What matters is the domination of democratic values and the prosperity around the world.

The US needs the world as the world needs it. But the world can survive with or without its domination. It’s up to the Americans to adjust themselves to the fact that they can’t be a superpower forever, in the same way that Britain adjusted itself after the WWII that it was no longer the biggest empire on earth and it had shrunk to a middle power with few territories to govern outside Great Britain.

It will be interesting to see how the US will look with its predicted geographic distribution; that is, it won’t have any racial majority, and with reduced global domination.

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